Voting in District 29:
An Analysis
April Mohamed
Data Question
★Is there a correlation or relationship between
demographic factors such as age, sex, race, or birthplace
and likelihood of voting in any type of election in
District 29?
Voting Trends
Trends in voting based on
age, sex, race, and birthplace
03
Table of contents
District 29
Description of the district
and its residents
01
Voters
Description of the voters
with demographic
information such as age, sex,
race, and birthplace
02
District 29
01
An overview of the district
Council District 29 is
located in Southeast
Nashville.
There are 12,269 voters in
this district –9,810 active
and 2,459 inactive.
35 to 39 is the largest age
group at 8.9% of the total
population.
35 to 39
White is the largest racial
group. This includes MENA
peoples and most Latinos.
White
There are 92 males to every
100 females.
Female
The Average Resident
Voters
02
An overview of the district’s
active voters
58 is the mean age.
58 years old
Black is the largest racial
group.
Black
There are 75 male voters for
every 100 female voters.
Female
The Average Voter
Brokered conventions
Voting
Trends
03
Percentage of active registered voters always vote
1.8%
Percentage of active registered voters never vote
23.9%
Percentage of active registered voters who have voted
in at least half of elections
26.7%
(The mean age of this group is 68.)
Voting Frequency (All Demographics)
41.1%
Percentage of voters who voted only in presidential elections
There is a very strong (-0.77) negative
correlation between age and voter
registration in the total population of
registered voters.
Age Correlations
There is a moderate (0.37) positive
correlation between age and voting in the
population of registered voters who always
vote.
Voting Frequency by Birthplace
Always
(20)
Frequently
(15-19)
Sometimes
(6-14)
Infrequently
(1-5)
Never
(0)
Nashville
8.3% of total
0.1% 2.1% 12.7% 57.3% 27.8%
Tennessee
27.7%
3.3% 14.3% 26% 37.1% 19.3%
Other state
40%
1.8% 8.2% 20.5% 44.3% 25.2%
Other country
11.1%
0.3% 2.5% 10.3% 56.4% 30.5%
*remaining 12.8% of
birthplaces are null
Probability
Conclusions
★A focused approach is beneficial because most registered voters never vote, vote
half the time or less, or vote only for presidential elections.
★Females are more likely to be registered to vote at nearly every age.
★Black residents are more likely to be registered to vote at every age until around
age 70+. In advanced old age, white residents are more likely to be registered to
vote. Health/life expectancy disparity?
★Native-born Tennesseans are more likely to vote than any other birthplace group.
★Egypt is the third most popular birthplace for voters (following Tennessee
broadly and Nashville specifically), but no Egyptian has ever voted more than 4
times. Barriers to participation?
Limitations
★Many of the district’s largest ethnic minority groups are classified racially as
“white” by the Census and the Election Commission, thereby limiting attempts
for specificity.
★Many voters do not have a racial category listed in Election Commission data.
★Census does not provide a breakdown of race data for respondents who chose
“Hispanic or Latino” as their ethnicity, thereby limiting attempts for specificity.
★An unknown number of registered voters are deceased.
★Date of voter registration was not taken into account for probability calculation.
